Introduction to Pot Odds
Niko | February 26, 2009
Pot odds are the ratio between the size of the pot and the size of the call you need to make to stay in the hand and see the next card. You can also view pot odds as a percentage. This percentage is calculated by dividing the amount of chips required to call by the total size of the pot.
For example, if the pot is $20 after the turn and you need to call $5 to see the river, your pot odds are 25%.
Using pot odds to your advantage
Continuing with the example above, to call the additional $5, you should either believe you already have the best hand or use pot odds to determine if drawing to the best hand is worthwhile. Specifically, you should be able to draw to the best hand more than 25% of the time.
For example, if you have 4 cards to a flush after the turn, the odds of the next card being the suit you need are roughly 20%. You can calculate this by dividing the 9 remaining cards of your suit by the 46 remaining cards in the deck (you know the values of 6 cards, so subtract these from the total deck).
Therefore, in this situation, calling $5 to see the river is the wrong play because you aren’t receiving the right pot odds to make the draw worthwhile. (This example does not include implied odds, which we will discuss in a later post.)
The amount of cards left matter
Now consider that you have four to a flush with a bottom pair, and you believe your opponent has top pair. In this situation, you have 9 cards that would complete your flush and 4 additional cards that would make you either two pair or a set, each of which you believe would give you the best hand. This means you have a total of 13 outs.
With 46 unknown cards remaining, your chance of catching one of your winning cards on the river is roughly 28% (13 outs / 46 remaining cards). In this case, you should call the $5 bet because your 28% chance of making the best hand is greater than the 25% pot odds required to justify the call.
Call or fold?
Here is one more detailed example:
You have 7 of Hearts8 of Hearts in your hand, and the board shows 6 of Clubs9 of DiamondsKing of Hearts2 of Hearts after the turn. The pot is $100, and your opponent bets another $50, making the total pot $150. You believe your opponent has a big hand, like top pair, two pair, or a set.
Now, consider your pot odds to decide if you should make the call. The flush draw gives you 9 outs, and the open-ended straight draw gives you another 8 outs, totaling 17 outs. This means your odds of making a winning hand are 37%.
The call you need to make is $50, which is 33% of the pot ($50/$150). Given that your chance of making the best hand is 37%, which is higher than the required 33% pot odds, you should definitely make this call.
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