Calculating Card Outs in Poker
An out is any card still in the deck that turns your hand into the best hand at the table.
The more outs you have, the greater your chance to complete a draw. That also makes a call mathematically correct more often.
Calculating outs is one of the most used skills in Texas Hold’em. Beginners and advanced players both use it often.
In practice, you always use outs together with pot odds. You count how many cards you still need. Then you convert them into hand odds.
After that, you compare those hand odds with the ratio between the pot and your call. If the pot odds are higher than the hand odds, calling is profitable long term.
If they are lower, folding is the better decision.
You can find the full explanation on the page about pot odds and hand odds.
On this page, you learn step by step how to count outs. You also learn how to convert them into hand odds. Then you compare those odds with pot odds.
You will find concrete examples with a hand and board. You also get a table with common draws and an explanation of frequent mistakes.
After reading this page, you can apply the calculation directly. The method works for every draw, from a flush draw to a gutshot.
Quick outs check
For the most common draws, you do not need to calculate everything every time.
A flush draw always has nine outs. An open-ended straight draw has eight outs. A gutshot has four outs.
A combo draw combines a flush draw with an open-ended straight draw. It usually has fifteen outs.
Once you know these rules, you can make faster decisions in most situations.
Common outs at a glance
- Flush draw: nine outs
- Open-ended straight draw: eight outs
- Gutshot straight draw: four outs
- Two overcards: six outs
- Combo draw with flush and open-ended straight draw: fifteen outs
Step by step outs calculation
Calculating outs has three steps.
First, count which cards complete your draw. Then decide how many cards are still unseen. Finally, apply the formula.
The result is your hand odds. This shows how often you miss your draw compared with how often you hit it.
- Count which cards complete your draw. These are your outs.
- Decide how many cards are still unseen. After the flop, this is 47 cards. After the turn, this is 46.
- Apply the formula: unseen cards minus outs, divided by outs. These are your hand odds.
With nine outs after the flop, the calculation is:
(47 - 9) / 9 = 38 / 9 = 4.2
Your hand odds are therefore 4.2 to one.
That means you miss the flush draw 4.2 times on average for every time you hit it.
The lower the hand odds, the more often you complete your draw. So, you need less favorable pot odds to call profitably.
From outs to hand odds
Hand odds show how often you miss a draw compared with how often you hit it.
A flush draw after the flop has nine outs. That equals hand odds of about 4.2 to one.
An open-ended straight draw has eight outs. That gives hand odds of about 4.9 to one.
A gutshot has only four outs. Because of that, the hand odds rise to almost eleven to one.
A useful shortcut is the rule of two and four. Multiply your outs by four to estimate your chance over two cards.
Multiply your outs by two to estimate your chance over one card.
With nine outs after the flop, you have about 36 percent over two cards. You have about 18 percent on the turn only.
This method gives a quick estimate without using the exact formula. If you prefer percentages, also read the percentage method.
Outs reference table
The table below shows your chance to improve for each number of outs.
Use the “after flop” and “after turn” columns for direct pot odds comparisons. The “flop to river” column gives an equity estimate.
However, do not use flop-to-river equity as the standard for a direct flop call.
| Outs | After flop to turn | After turn to river | Flop to river |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.3% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.4% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 6.5% | 12.5% |
| 4 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| 5 | 10.6% | 10.9% | 20.3% |
| 6 | 12.8% | 13.0% | 24.1% |
| 7 | 14.9% | 15.2% | 27.8% |
| 8 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| 9 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35.0% |
| 10 | 21.3% | 21.7% | 38.4% |
| 11 | 23.4% | 23.9% | 41.7% |
| 12 | 25.5% | 26.1% | 45.0% |
| 13 | 27.7% | 28.3% | 48.1% |
| 14 | 29.8% | 30.4% | 51.2% |
| 15 | 31.9% | 32.6% | 54.1% |
| 16 | 34.0% | 34.8% | 57.0% |
| 17 | 36.2% | 37.0% | 59.8% |
| 18 | 38.3% | 39.1% | 62.4% |
| 19 | 40.4% | 41.3% | 65.0% |
| 20 | 42.6% | 43.5% | 67.5% |
Compare with pot odds
Hand odds only become useful when you compare them with pot odds.
Pot odds show how much you must call compared with what is already in the pot.
If the pot odds are higher than your hand odds, calling is profitable long term. If the pot odds are lower, folding is better.
This is the core comparison you make with every draw.
If you prefer calculating in ratios, read the ratio method.
Suppose there is $100 in the pot. Your opponent bets $20.
The total pot is now $120, and you must call $20. Your pot odds are 120 to 20, or six to one.
With a flush draw, your hand odds are 4.2 to one.
Because six is greater than 4.2, calling is profitable here. You pay relatively little for a chance that pays enough long term.
Implied odds
Direct pot odds tell you what you must pay right now.
Implied odds go further. They also include what you expect to win if your draw comes in.
If you know an opponent will likely make a big bet after you hit, your effective pot odds improve.
Suppose you have a gutshot with four outs. Your direct pot odds are eight to one. Your hand odds are almost eleven to one.
The direct pot odds do not justify the call.
However, suppose the pot is $150. You expect your opponent to bet another $80 after the river.
Your effective pot odds become 150 plus 80 against 15. That equals about fifteen to one.
In that case, the call becomes mathematically justified.
Implied odds are strongest in three situations.
First, they work well with hidden draws. A gutshot or backdoor draw may not be obvious to your opponent.
Second, they matter with deep stacks. The more chips behind, the more you can win after hitting.
Third, they help against opponents who struggle to fold when a draw completes.
Use implied odds carefully. They are an estimate, not a guarantee.
Only use them when you have a concrete reason to expect future bets. Do not use them to justify every doubtful call.
Concrete examples
Below are three examples with a hand and board.
Each example shows how to count outs, calculate hand odds, and compare them with pot odds.
Example 1: flush draw
- Hand: A♥Q♥
- Board: 7♥K♣2♥
You have a flush draw with nine outs. These are the nine remaining hearts.
After the flop, there are 47 unseen cards.
The hand odds are:
(47 - 9) / 9 = 38 / 9 = 4.2 to one
There is $80 in the pot, and your opponent bets $15.
Your pot odds are:
(80 + 15) / 15 = 95 / 15 = 6.3 to one
Because the pot odds are clearly higher than the hand odds, calling is correct here.
Example 2: open-ended straight draw
- Hand: 9♠8♦
- Board: 7♣6♥2♠
You have an open-ended straight draw.
A five or a ten completes your straight. That gives you eight outs.
The hand odds are:
(47 - 8) / 8 = 39 / 8 = 4.9 to one
There is $60 in the pot, and your opponent bets $20.
Your pot odds are:
(60 + 20) / 20 = 80 / 20 = 4 to one
Because the pot odds are lower than the hand odds, folding is better mathematically.
Example 3: gutshot straight draw
- Hand: J♣9♥
- Board: 8♠7♦2♣
You have a gutshot. Only a ten makes your straight.
That gives you four outs.
The hand odds are:
(47 - 4) / 4 = 43 / 4 = 10.8 to one
So, you need high pot odds to justify this call.
There is $90 in the pot, and your opponent bets $10.
Your pot odds are:
(90 + 10) / 10 = 100 / 10 = 10 to one
Because the pot odds are slightly lower than the hand odds, folding is better.
An exception may exist when you expect strong implied odds.
Common mistakes
The most common mistake is counting cards that are not real outs.
A card that completes your flush but gives your opponent a full house is not a clean out.
Only count cards that give you the best hand. Do not count cards that can make a stronger hand for your opponent.
Dirty outs overestimate your chances and lead to bad calls.
A second common mistake is double counting with combo draws.
If you have both a flush draw and a straight draw, some cards complete both draws at once.
Those cards count only once.
With fifteen outs, the overlapping cards are already included. Do not add them again separately.
Otherwise, you overestimate your chance.
Finally, many players forget implied odds.
If you have a gutshot with weak direct pot odds, calling can still be profitable. That only applies when you expect a big future bet after hitting.
Implied odds are future bets you expect to win when your draw comes in.
They improve your effective pot odds. However, they are hard to estimate.
Use them carefully and only with a clear reason.
Frequently asked questions about calculating outs in poker
The formula stays the same:
(46 - outs) / outsWith nine outs after the turn, that is:
(46 - 9) / 9 = 4.1 to oneFinal thoughts
Calculating outs is a skill you apply faster with practice.
Once you know the outs for common draws, comparing them with pot odds takes only seconds.
Start with flush draws and open-ended straight draws. These are the spots you will see most often at the table.